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Sources · A tax on meat

This house would tax meat to cut emissions.

Fact bank v1 · 12 cards

  1. MT-01True

    “Food production causes between a quarter and a third of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Confirmed: a 2021 study found the food system caused 18 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2015, which was 34% of the world's total. Another large study puts food's share at about 26%.

    Different studies give different figures. The 34% covers everything from farms and land clearing to processing, transport, packaging and waste. A separate 2021 study found that animal-based foods cause 57% of the emissions from producing food, and plant-based foods 29%. Energy use is still the biggest source overall: almost three-quarters of global emissions in 2016.

    “In 2015, food-system emissions amounted to 18 Gt CO2 equivalent per year globally, representing 34% of total GHG emissions.”
    Nature Food (Crippa et al., 2021, via PubMed, NIH)·Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissionsGovernment / parliament · 8 Mar 2021 ↗

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  2. MT-02Mixed

    “Livestock farming produces more greenhouse gases than all the world's cars, planes and ships put together.”

    Not quite. Livestock cause about 14.5% of global emissions, which researchers describe as similar to transport, not more. Transport caused 16.2% of the global total in 2016.

    It depends on what you count. The 14.5% estimate, from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, covers the whole livestock sector. The 16.2% for transport counts only the fuel burned, not the making of cars, planes and ships. Counting only the animals themselves and their manure, livestock caused 5.8% of global emissions in 2016; that figure leaves out land cleared for grazing and for animal feed. Either way, livestock are a major source of emissions.

    “about 14.5% of GHG emissions overall, a similar proportion as from transport”
    PLOS ONE·Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts (Springmann et al., 2018)Peer-reviewed research · 6 Nov 2018 ↗

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  3. MT-03True

    “Livestock use most of the world's farmland but provide less than a fifth of our calories.”

    Confirmed: grazing land plus cropland used to grow animal feed make up about 80% of the world's farmland. Meat, dairy and farmed fish provide just 17% of the world's calories and 38% of its protein.

    Crops grown for people to eat use about 16% of farmland, yet they provide most of our calories and protein. The land used for livestock is about as big as the whole of the Americas. A large 2018 study by Poore and Nemecek found much the same: animal foods use 83% of farmland and give 18% of calories and 37% of protein.

    “Meat, dairy, and farmed fish provide just 17% of the world’s calories and 38% of its protein.”
    Our World in Data (Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser)·Half of the world's habitable land is used for agricultureIndependent research institute · 16 Feb 2024 ↗

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  4. MT-04True

    “Most of the land used for grazing animals could not be used to grow crops anyway.”

    Confirmed: two-thirds of pastures are unsuitable for growing crops. Grazing land makes up about two-thirds of all the world's farmland.

    That land could still be used in other ways. It could be left to return to natural plants and wildlife, which would help nature and store carbon. A large 2018 study estimated that if everyone ate a plant-based diet, the world would need 75% less farmland, shrinking from 4.1 billion to 1 billion hectares. The research suggests everyone could be fed on today's cropland, but only with a big shift towards plant-based diets.

    “Two-thirds of pastures are unsuitable for growing crops.”
    Our World in Data (Hannah Ritchie)·If the world adopted a plant-based diet, we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectaresIndependent research institute · 4 Mar 2021 ↗

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  5. MT-05True

    “Making meat more expensive would make people buy less of it.”

    Confirmed: a review of 160 US studies found meat is among the foods where buying changes most when prices change. For meat, a 10% price rise means people buy roughly 7% to 8% less.

    People may switch to a different, less-taxed meat instead of eating less meat overall. In one global model of a health tax that raised processed meat prices the most, people ate 16% less processed meat but kept eating the same amount of red meat, because they swapped one for the other.

    “with food away from home, soft drinks, juice, and meats being most responsive to price changes (0.7-0.8)”
    American Journal of Public Health (Andreyeva, Long and Brownell, 2010, via PubMed, NIH)·The impact of food prices on consumption: a systematic review of research on the price elasticity of demand for foodGovernment / parliament · 17 Dec 2009 ↗

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  6. MT-06Mixed

    “A meat tax would barely make a dent in greenhouse gas emissions.”

    It depends on how the tax is designed. A tax set only by health harms, mostly on processed meat, cut food emissions by just 1.2% in one global model. A 2026 model of a tax on the climate harm of all foods found cuts of 15% to 19% in food emissions if every country joined in except those where many people do not have enough to eat.

    Both are computer models, not results from a real tax. The 1.2% health tax would still cut about 110 million tonnes of greenhouse gases (in 2020), similar to some farm technology fixes. In the 2026 study, cuts were much smaller when fewer countries took part, down to about 2%. The biggest climate cuts came from using the same tax rate on greenhouse gases in every country, but that could harm health in some countries.

    “The change in emissions represented a reduction in food-related GHG emissions of 1.2%.”
    PLOS ONE·Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts (Springmann et al., 2018)Peer-reviewed research · 6 Nov 2018 ↗

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  7. MT-07Mixed

    “Taxing meat would just push farming and its emissions to other countries.”

    Mostly not for a tax paid by shoppers, but it is a real risk for a tax on farms. A 2026 global model found that rising emissions in countries without the tax cancelled out only a small share of the cuts from a food emissions tax paid by consumers.

    A tax at the till applies to food wherever it was produced, so imported meat is taxed too. A tax on farmers is different: earlier studies found that production could move abroad and cancel out much of the cut. Denmark, a big exporter of high-emission foods, is the first country planning a greenhouse gas tax on farm production.

    “Rising emissions in exempted countries offset only a small share of these reductions, due to the limited demand reallocations.”
    Nature Food·Food emissions taxes can deliver health and environmental benefits with limited leakage (Bouyssou et al., 2026)Peer-reviewed research · 21 Sept 2026 ↗
  8. MT-08Mostly true

    “A meat tax would hit poorer families hardest.”

    Mostly true, but the effect is small. A study of 25 European countries found meat taxes on their own are slightly regressive: they take a bigger share of poorer households' budgets. Giving the money back to everyone as an equal payment turned this around in most cases.

    With a 5% tax, the poorest fifth would pay about €25.40 a year each (0.24% of their spending) and the richest fifth about €48.50 (0.11%). Richer people pay more in euros but less as a share of what they spend. Using the money to cut VAT on fruit and vegetables softened the effect but did not fully cancel it.

    “We find that across all selected tax designs, uncompensated meat taxes are slightly regressive.”
    Nature Food·Meat taxes in Europe can be designed to avoid overburdening low-income consumers (Klenert et al., 2023)Peer-reviewed research · 2 Oct 2023 ↗
  9. MT-09Mixed

    “Voters will never accept a tax on meat.”

    Support depends on the size of the tax. In a German voting experiment with more than 2,800 people, 62% backed the lowest tax tested, about €0.19 per kilo. Support fell to 23% for the highest, about €1.56 per kilo.

    People were about 11 percentage points more likely to back a meat tax explained as helping animal welfare than one for the climate. Real proposals have struggled. By early 2023, Dutch plans had not won a majority in parliament, the UK's 2021 National Food Strategy had left out a meat tax because people might not accept it, and Danish politicians had turned down a 2016 call for a red meat tax. Denmark is now the first country planning a greenhouse gas tax on farm production.

    “Only at the lowest tax level tested do all tax variants receive support from most voters.”
    Nature Food·Animal welfare is a stronger determinant of public support for meat taxation than climate change mitigation in Germany (Perino and Schwickert, 2023)Peer-reviewed research · 16 Feb 2023 ↗

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  10. MT-10Mostly true

    “Taxing red and processed meat would save hundreds of thousands of lives a year.”

    Mostly true, but it comes from a computer model. A 2018 global study estimated that a tax set to cover meat's health costs would cut deaths linked to red and processed meat by 9%, about 222,000 in 2020, with a wide range of 38,000 to 357,000.

    In the model, processed meat prices rose by 25% on average, and by over 100% in rich countries. It put the health costs of eating red and processed meat at $285 billion in 2020. A 2026 study of a climate tax on all foods also found fewer deaths worldwide in every version it tested, from about 87,000 to about 1 million. But the version with the same tax rate in every country could harm health in some countries.

    “The number of deaths attributable to red and processed meat consumption decreased by 9% (222,000; SI, 38,000–357,000)”
    PLOS ONE·Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts (Springmann et al., 2018)Peer-reviewed research · 6 Nov 2018 ↗

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  11. MT-11False

    “The World Health Organization says processed meat is as dangerous as smoking.”

    No. The WHO's cancer agency put processed meat in the same group as tobacco smoking because there is strong evidence that it causes cancer. Being in the same group does not mean they are equally dangerous.

    The groups show how sure scientists are that something causes cancer, not how big the risk is. Eating 50 g of processed meat every day raises the risk of bowel cancer by about 18%. The agency compared about 34,000 cancer deaths a year worldwide linked to diets high in processed meat with about 1 million from tobacco smoking. Red meat is in a lower group: it 'probably' causes cancer.

    “but this does NOT mean that they are all equally dangerous.”
    International Agency for Research on Cancer (WHO)·Q&A on the carcinogenicity of the consumption of red meat and processed meatIntergovernmental body · 26 Oct 2015 ↗

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  12. MT-12Mostly false

    “Locally farmed meat is climate-friendly because it hasn't travelled far.”

    Transport is usually a tiny part of meat's climate impact. For beef it is typically less than 1% of its greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the emissions come from the farm and from clearing land.

    On average, producing a kilogram of beef emits about 60 kg of greenhouse gases, compared with just 1 kg for peas. A huge 2018 study of 38,700 farms found that even the lowest-impact animal products usually have bigger environmental impacts than plant alternatives. Transport matters more for fruit and vegetables: a 2022 study found transport made up about 19% of food-system emissions, and over a third of that came from fruit and vegetables.

    “Transport typically accounts for less than 1% of beef’s GHG emissions: eating locally has minimal effects on its total footprint.”
    Our World in Data (Hannah Ritchie)·You want to reduce the carbon footprint of your food? Focus on what you eat, not whether your food is localIndependent research institute · 24 Jan 2020 ↗

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