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Sources · Nuclear power for net zero

This house would make nuclear power the backbone of net zero.

Fact bank v1 · 15 cards

  1. NU-01True

    “Nuclear power is one of the safest energy sources, causing far fewer deaths per unit of electricity than fossil fuels.”

    Confirmed: Our World in Data estimates about 0.03 deaths per terawatt-hour for nuclear (including Chernobyl and Fukushima), against 24.6 for coal and 2.8 for gas, making nuclear 99.8% safer than coal and 97.6% safer than gas.

    The death rates count air pollution and accidents across the supply chain. Wind (about 0.04) and solar (about 0.02) are similarly safe; the differences between nuclear, wind and solar are within the uncertainty.

    “Nuclear energy, for example, results in 99.9% fewer deaths than brown coal; 99.8% fewer than coal; 99.7% fewer than oil; and 97.6% fewer than gas.”
    Our World in Data·What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy?Independent research institute · 1 Jul 2022 ↗

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  2. NU-02True

    “Over its full lifecycle, nuclear power emits about as little carbon as wind and far less than gas.”

    Confirmed: the IPCC puts median lifecycle emissions at 12 g CO2-equivalent per kWh for nuclear and 11 g for onshore wind, against 490 g for gas and 820 g for coal.

    Lifecycle figures cover mining, fuel processing, construction and decommissioning, not just operation. Estimates vary by study: the IPCC range for nuclear runs from 3.7 to 110 g, and Our World in Data, using newer UN (UNECE) figures, finds coal emits more than a hundred times more than nuclear.

    “Oil and gas are also much worse than nuclear and renewables but to a lesser extent than coal.”
    Our World in Data·What are the safest and cleanest sources of energy?Independent research institute · 1 Mar 2024 ↗

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  3. NU-03True

    “In the US, nuclear plants run at full power more than 90% of the time, far more than wind or solar.”

    Confirmed: the US Energy Information Administration says the average capacity factor of US nuclear plants was 91% in 2025, higher than for any other type of power plant; wind was about 34% and solar photovoltaic about 24%.

    Capacity factor is actual output as a share of potential output. Wind and solar generate only when the wind blows or the sun shines, while gas and coal plants are used flexibly to meet demand (about 58% for gas combined-cycle and 49% for coal in 2025). The 2025 figures are preliminary; EIA's final figure for 2024 was 90.8%, while the Department of Energy's nuclear office cites more than 92% for 2024. Nuclear supplied about 17% of US electricity generation in 2025.

    “The average annual capacity factor for nuclear power plants in 2025 was 91%”
    US Energy Information Administration·U.S. nuclear industryGovernment / parliament · 4 May 2026 ↗

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  4. NU-04True

    “The UK government has set a goal of up to 24 GW of nuclear power by 2050, enough for about a quarter of the country's electricity.”

    Confirmed: the January 2024 Civil Nuclear Roadmap set out an ambition to increase nuclear generation up to fourfold, to 24 GW by 2050, described as enough for a quarter of UK electricity needs. The same 24 GW ambition had already been set out in the government's April 2022 Energy Security Strategy.

    Both announcements came from Conservative governments. The Labour government's November 2025 response on nuclear planning policy (EN-7) says energy National Policy Statements set no limit or target for low-carbon infrastructure, and points instead to funded commitments: £14.2 billion for Sizewell C and over £2.5 billion for a first small modular reactor programme. The World Nuclear Association reported in January 2026 that the government had not indicated any change to the 24 GW goal. Hinkley Point C is also under construction.

    “increase generation of this homegrown supply of clean, reliable, and abundant energy by up to 4 times to 24 gigawatts (GW) by 2050”
    Department for Energy Security and Net Zero·Biggest expansion of nuclear power for 70 years to create jobs, reduce bills and strengthen Britain's energy securityGovernment / parliament · 11 Jan 2024 ↗

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  5. NU-05True

    “All the spent fuel US nuclear plants have ever produced would fit on a single football field less than 10 yards deep.”

    Confirmed: the US Department of Energy said in 2022 that the roughly 90,000 metric tons of spent fuel produced by US commercial reactors since the 1950s could fit on one football field at a depth of under 10 yards.

    The US generates about 2,000 metric tons of spent fuel a year, and a July 2025 Department of Energy presentation put the total at about 95,000 metric tons. The small volume is real, but the US still has no permanent disposal solution: spent fuel is kept in pools and then dry casks at more than 70 sites in 35 states pending a federal decision.

    “it could fit on a single football field at a depth of less than 10 yards”
    US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy·5 Fast Facts about Spent Nuclear FuelGovernment / parliament · 3 Oct 2022 ↗

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  6. NU-06True

    “The newest US nuclear reactors, at Plant Vogtle in Georgia, came in years late and more than double their original budget.”

    Confirmed: Vogtle Units 3 and 4 were expected to cost $14 billion and start in 2016 and 2017, but entered commercial operation in July 2023 and 2024 at an estimated total cost of more than $30 billion.

    Construction began in 2009. Two other AP1000 reactors in South Carolina were abandoned in 2017, and when Vogtle 4 opened in 2024 no other reactors were under construction in the US. The cost figure is Georgia Power's estimate as reported by the EIA.

    “Georgia Power now estimates the total cost of the project to be more than $30 billion”
    US Energy Information Administration·Plant Vogtle Unit 4 begins commercial operationGovernment / parliament · 1 May 2024 ↗
  7. NU-07True

    “In the UK, Sizewell C will cost around £38 billion and will not produce power until the mid-to-late 2030s.”

    Confirmed: the government's February 2026 summary business case puts Sizewell C's cost at around £38 billion in 2024 prices, with operations expected to begin in the mid-to-late 2030s.

    The final investment decision was taken on 22 July 2025. Sizewell C, of up to 3.2 GW, is an above-ground replica of Hinkley Point C financed through a regulated asset base model, which the government says adds an average of about £1 a month to household bills during construction. In May 2026 the National Audit Office reported, in 2024-25 prices, a company baseline estimate of £38.2 billion, a government threshold of £40.5 billion close to the middle of the company's forecasts, and funding committed up to £47.7 billion, with first power expected from 2038.

    “It is expected that the overall cost of the project will be around £38bn (2024 prices), and operations will begin in the mid-to-late 2030s.”
    Department for Energy Security and Net Zero·Sizewell C Project: Summary Business CaseGovernment / parliament · 24 Feb 2026 ↗

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  8. NU-08True

    “The cost of solar power has collapsed, falling by nearly 90% in about 15 years.”

    Confirmed: electricity from utility-scale solar PV cost $496 per MWh in 2009 and fell by 88% within 15 years.

    These are global average generation costs without subsidies; they exclude the extra storage, backup and grid costs of managing variable output. Over the same period the cost of electricity from new nuclear rose.

    “Electricity from utility-scale solar photovoltaics cost $496 per MWh in 2009. Within 15 years the price declined by 88%”
    Our World in Data·Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?Independent research institute · 1 Apr 2025 ↗
  9. NU-09True

    “Renewables now generate more than half of the UK's electricity.”

    Confirmed: renewables supplied a record 52.5% of UK electricity generation in 2025, the second year in a row in which they produced more than half.

    Gas was still the largest single source, at 31.5% of generation in 2025, and nuclear output fell 12% to 35.9 TWh because of outages across the ageing fleet. Shares vary with the weather and new capacity: provisional figures put renewables at 53.1% of generation in the first quarter of 2026, helped by record wind generation.

    “Renewable’s share of electricity generation was a record 52.5 per cent in 2025”
    Department for Energy Security and Net Zero·Energy Trends: UK, October to December 2025 and 2025Government / parliament · 2 Apr 2026 ↗

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  10. NU-10Mostly true

    “Hinkley Point C was guaranteed a price of £92.50 per megawatt-hour for its electricity.”

    The 2016 contract set a strike price of £92.50/MWh, but in 2012 prices, and it was cut to £89.50 once Sizewell C reached its final investment decision in July 2025. The National Audit Office puts that at about £129/MWh in 2025 prices.

    The strike price is fixed in real terms for the first 35 years of operation, so quoting £92.50 next to figures in current prices understates it. EDF's 2025 results confirm the £3/MWh reduction to £89.50/MWh.

    “DESNZ guaranteed that HPC would receive £89.50 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2012 prices (£128.94 in 2025 prices) for the first 35 years”
    National Audit Office·Sizewell C (HC 33, Session 2026-27)Government / parliament · 20 May 2026 ↗

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  11. NU-11False

    “The Chernobyl disaster killed hundreds of thousands of people.”

    Fewer than 50 deaths had been directly attributed to Chernobyl radiation by mid-2005. The WHO estimated up to 4,000 eventual deaths among the most exposed groups and up to about 9,000 including people in less contaminated areas.

    These long-term figures are predictions based on a model that assumes even low doses carry some cancer risk. The WHO's cancer research agency estimated about 16,000 cancer deaths across Europe by 2065 (uncertainty range 6,700 to 38,000); mainstream scientific estimates do not approach hundreds of thousands. By 2006 nearly 5,000 thyroid cancers had been diagnosed in people who were children or adolescents at the time; in 2005 the WHO said survival among such patients had been almost 99%, judging from Belarus.

    “A total of up to 4000 people could eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) accident”
    World Health Organization·Chernobyl: the true scale of the accidentIntergovernmental body · 5 Sept 2005 ↗

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  12. NU-12False

    “Radiation from the Fukushima accident killed thousands of people.”

    One death, a worker's lung cancer, has been officially attributed to radiation from Fukushima. About 2,313 deaths were linked to the stress and disruption of the evacuation rather than to radiation exposure.

    The earthquake and tsunami that caused the accident killed far more people than the nuclear accident. WHO and UN scientific assessments found very low radiation risk to the public; the evacuation itself caused most of the accident-related deaths.

    “In 2018, the Japanese government reported that one worker has since died from lung cancer as a result of radiation exposure from the event.”
    Our World in Data·Nuclear EnergyIndependent research institute · 1 Aug 2026 ↗
  13. NU-13Mostly false

    “Small modular reactors are ready now and can be rolled out in the UK within a few years.”

    The UK's first SMR project, announced in November 2025 for Wylfa in North Wales with an initial three units, only aims to supply power to the grid from the mid-2030s.

    In April 2026 Great British Energy - Nuclear signed a contract with Rolls-Royce SMR to begin site-specific design, regulatory and planning work ahead of a future final investment decision, backed by £2.6 billion allocated in the 2025 Spending Review. Factory-built SMRs are meant to shorten construction, but the Wylfa units would be the UK's first.

    “small modular reactors to be supplying power to the grid from the mid-2030s”
    Department for Energy Security and Net Zero·North Wales to pioneer UK's first small modular reactorsGovernment / parliament · 13 Nov 2025 ↗

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  14. NU-14Mostly false

    “New UK offshore wind at £91.20/MWh costs about the same as Hinkley Point C at £92.50/MWh.”

    The two figures use different price bases. In Allocation Round 7 (results published January 2026), offshore wind in England and Wales cleared at £65.45/MWh in 2012 prices (£91.20 in 2024 prices). Hinkley's £92.50/MWh is in 2012 prices and has since been cut to £89.50, so like for like new offshore wind is about 27% cheaper per MWh (our calculation from the government and National Audit Office figures in 2012 prices).

    In today's money the National Audit Office puts Hinkley's price at about £129/MWh (2025 prices). Strike prices leave out system costs: the NAO notes that intermittent renewables need extra transmission, reserve generation and balancing services that standard cost measures do not capture, so a per-MWh comparison flatters wind somewhat. Contract lengths also differ: 20 years for the new wind contracts against 35 years for Hinkley.

    “Breakdown of the outcome by technology, year and clearing price (strike prices are in 2012 and 2024 prices)”
    Department for Energy Security and Net Zero·Contracts for Difference Allocation Round 7 results (accessible webpage)Government / parliament · 10 Feb 2026 ↗

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  15. NU-15Mostly false

    “Nuclear is the cheapest way to generate electricity.”

    Not for new plants: global cost data show electricity from new nuclear has become more expensive since 2009, while new solar and wind have become much cheaper and in most places now undercut new fossil fuels.

    Rising nuclear costs are linked to tighter safety regulation and small supply chains after decades of few builds; countries that standardised designs kept costs steadier. Paid-off existing plants can run cheaply, and simple cost comparisons miss nuclear's value as steady output.

    “For nuclear power, you see the data since 2009 in the chart. Nuclear power has increased in price.”
    Our World in Data·Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?Independent research institute · 1 Apr 2025 ↗

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