Sources · Reducing immigration
This house would substantially reduce immigration.
Fact bank v1 · 16 cards
- IM-01True
“In the UK, net migration hit a record high of around 944,000 in the year to March 2023.”
Confirmed: official estimates show UK net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023, the highest level on record.
Net migration is immigration minus emigration. The post-Brexit spike was driven by rising immigration of non-EU citizens; net migration has since fallen sharply, to 171,000 in calendar year 2025.
“when net migration peaked at a historical high of 944,000”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·Net migration to the UKIndependent research institute · 27 May 2026 ↗ - IM-02True
“In the UK, net migration is now the only source of population growth because deaths are about to outnumber births.”
Confirmed: ONS projects net migration adding 2.2 million people in the 10 years to mid-2034, while natural change (births minus deaths) is minus 450,000, with deaths exceeding births from mid-2026.
From the ONS 2024-based national population projections (April 2026), which assume long-term net migration of 230,000 a year. Projections rest on assumptions, and migration is the most uncertain component.
“It is projected that net migration will add 2.2 million to the population in the 10 years to mid-2034.”
Office for National Statistics·National population projections: 2024-basedOfficial statistics · 28 Apr 2026 ↗ - IM-03True
“Most people in Britain think immigration has been too high.”
Confirmed: in survey data cited by the Migration Observatory, 69% said immigration over the past 10 years had been too high, although only 41% said it had been bad for Britain.
Answers depend heavily on question wording: many more people say numbers are too high than say immigration is harmful, and views of small-boat arrivals are far more negative than of visa routes. Immigration salience reached 51% naming it an important issue in September 2025.
“69% said it had been too high. This suggests that many people would prefer lower levels of immigration”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·Public opinion towards immigration in the UKIndependent research institute · 8 Sept 2026 ↗ - IM-04Mostly true
“Immigration pushes up house prices in the UK.”
There is some evidence for this: the Migration Advisory Committee (2018) found a 1 percentage point rise in the UK population from migration was associated with roughly a 1% rise in house prices, but warned the result depends heavily on the statistical method.
Migration adds to housing demand through population growth while supply has lagged, but prices are also driven by incomes, interest rates and credit. One local study (2003 to 2010) found migrant inflows lowered local prices as higher-income residents moved out, so the evidence is not one-directional.
“there is some evidence that migration is likely to have increased house prices in the UK”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·Migrants and Housing in the UKIndependent research institute · 4 Dec 2024 ↗ - IM-05True
“Some migrants, such as low-paid care workers, cost the UK public finances more over their lifetimes than they pay in.”
Confirmed: the Migration Advisory Committee (2025) estimated that care workers, Health and Care visa dependants and partners of British citizens have a net negative lifetime fiscal impact, and the OBR found low-wage migrants have a negative lifetime impact.
Fiscal impact depends mainly on earnings. The same MAC work found Skilled Worker and Health and Care main applicants make a positive lifetime contribution, and the OBR found an average-wage migrant arriving at 25 contributes more than a UK-born worker on the same pay because the UK did not fund their childhood education.
“care workers, Health and Care dependants, and the partners of British citizens have a net negative lifetime fiscal impact”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the UKIndependent research institute · 23 Jun 2026 ↗ - IM-06True
“Tens of thousands of people still cross the Channel to the UK in small boats every year.”
Confirmed: 33,000 people arrived by small boat in the year ending June 2026, 88% of the 38,000 detected arrivals via illegal entry routes.
Small-boat arrivals were 23% lower than the previous year but similar to the years ending June 2022 and June 2024. In the same year 86,000 people claimed asylum (down 21%), and 16,000 supported asylum seekers were in hotels at the end of June 2026, half the number a year earlier.
“there were 38,000 detected arrivals via illegal entry routes in the YE June 2026 - small boat arrivals accounted for 33,000 (88%) of these”
Home Office·Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: summary of latest statisticsGovernment / parliament · 27 Aug 2026 ↗ - IM-07Mostly true
“The OBR says higher net migration reduces UK government borrowing.”
In its March 2024 forecast the OBR estimated that about 350,000 extra net migrants would cut borrowing by around £7.4 billion by 2028-29, mainly through £6.2 billion of extra tax. This is a five-year effect that weakens as migrants age and gain access to benefits.
The OBR also noted that, with departmental budgets fixed, extra migration lowers public service spending per person (by about £40 in 2028-29) and adds pressure on services. Long-run effects depend on migrants' earnings and length of stay.
“deliver a net reduction in borrowing of around £7.4 billion by 2028-29, taking account of lower spending on debt interest as well”
Office for Budget Responsibility·The impact of migration on the fiscal forecast (Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2024, Box 4.5)Government / parliament · 1 Mar 2024 ↗ - IM-08True
“In the US, undocumented immigrants are arrested for violent crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens.”
Confirmed: a study of Texas arrest data from 2012 to 2018 found undocumented immigrants were arrested at less than half the rate of US-born citizens for violent and drug crimes.
This is US evidence (mainly Texas) and does not directly describe the UK. PolitiFact also cites a National Bureau of Economic Research study covering 1870 to 2020 that found immigrants 60% less likely to be incarcerated.
“undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes”
PolitiFact·What's behind recent false claims about immigrants and crime?Fact-checker / wire service · 27 Sept 2024 ↗ - IM-09Mixed
“The NHS depends on overseas-trained staff, with around 40% of new nurses trained abroad.”
The figure is out of date: 39.1% of new joiners to the UK nursing and midwifery register were educated abroad in 2024-25, but only 26.4% in 2025-26.
These Nursing and Midwifery Council figures count nurses, midwives and nursing associates joining the UK register, not NHS staff specifically. The international share of new joiners peaked at 49.4% in 2023-24 and has fallen since. Reliance is still substantial: the NMC's full UK report shows 24.4% of the register was internationally educated in March 2026.
“In 2025-26, 26.4% of new joiners to the Register were internationally educated, compared to 39.1% the year before and a high of 49.4% in 2023-24.”
Nursing and Midwifery Council·Registration data reports (The NMC Register, 1 April 2025 - 31 March 2026)Government / parliament · 29 Jul 2026 ↗Further sources for this card
- IM-10True
“The UK population is ageing, with more pensioners for every person of working age.”
Confirmed: ONS projects the old-age dependency ratio (people of pensionable age per 1,000 of working age) rising from 280 in mid-2024 to 310 in mid-2034 and 329 by mid-2049.
The pensionable-age population is projected to grow by 1.8 million to 14.2 million by mid-2034, even allowing for the State Pension age rising to 67. Most migrants arrive of working age, which is why debaters link migration to ageing, though migrants also age over time.
“It is projected that OADR will increase from 280 in mid-2024 to 310 in mid-2034, and reach 329 by mid-2049.”
Office for National Statistics·National population projections: 2024-basedOfficial statistics · 28 Apr 2026 ↗ - IM-11True
“UK net migration has already roughly halved, to about 171,000 in 2025.”
Confirmed: provisional ONS estimates put net migration at 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, down from an updated 331,000 in 2024.
The fall was driven mainly by a 47% drop in non-EU nationals arriving for work. Immigration was 813,000 and emigration 642,000. These are provisional estimates published May 2026 and are routinely revised.
“At 171,000, long-term international net migration for year ending (YE) December 2025 has nearly halved from YE December 2024 (updated to 331,000)”
Office for National Statistics·Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025Official statistics · 21 May 2026 ↗ - IM-12Mixed
“Immigration has driven down wages for British workers.”
Research finds the effects on UK-born workers' wages are small: slightly negative for the lowest paid and slightly positive for higher earners. One study estimated immigration from 1994 to 2016 reduced hourly pay at the 5th percentile by about half a penny a year.
The Migration Advisory Committee's 2018 review found little or no impact on average wages or employment, with any negative effects concentrated among lower-educated workers and possibly during downturns.
“Research suggests that the impacts of migration on wages and employment prospects for UK-born workers are small”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·The Labour Market Effects of ImmigrationIndependent research institute · 24 Feb 2026 ↗ - IM-13False
“UK net migration topped one million a year.”
Net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. The figure above one million was gross immigration, which peaked at about 1.47 million before emigration is subtracted.
Debaters often confuse immigration (people arriving) with net migration (arrivals minus departures). By 2025 net migration had fallen to 171,000.
“This was down from the peak of 944,000 in YE March 2023.”
Office for National Statistics·Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025Official statistics · 21 May 2026 ↗ - IM-14False
“Most people who move to the UK are asylum seekers.”
Asylum seekers are a minority of arrivals. Of non-EU nationals immigrating long term in the year ending December 2025, 47% came to study, 23% for work and 14% were asylum applicants.
These are ONS provisional estimates for long-term non-EU+ immigration (627,000 people); family and humanitarian routes made up a further 7% and 6%. Total long-term immigration of all nationalities was 813,000, so the 88,000 non-EU+ nationals who came for asylum were about 11% of all arrivals.
“47% came for study-related reasons, 23% for work-related reasons, 14% were asylum applicants”
Office for National Statistics·Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025Official statistics · 21 May 2026 ↗ - IM-15Mostly false
“Migrants can claim benefits as soon as they arrive in the UK.”
Most non-EU migrants on work, study or family visas are subject to the No Recourse to Public Funds condition, which bars most benefits such as Universal Credit and Child Benefit until they are granted indefinite leave to remain.
The rule does not cover everyone: for example, people granted refugee status or settlement can access benefits. The government says the condition is designed to prevent fiscal costs from benefit payments.
“prevents non-EU citizens on work, study, or family visas from accessing most benefits, including Universal Credit or Child Benefit”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the UKIndependent research institute · 23 Jun 2026 ↗ - IM-16Mostly false
“Migrants get priority for social housing over British people.”
Social housing is not allocated on the basis of immigration status or nationality, and at the 2021 Census non-UK passport holders were 7% of social housing residents in England and Wales against 10% of the population.
Migrants on temporary work, study or family visas are generally not eligible for social housing. Counting all foreign-born residents, including naturalised citizens, the share in social housing was 15% in 2021, and new lettings to non-UK nationals in England rose from 6% to 10% between 2007/08 and 2022/23.
“on average, they were slightly underrepresented among social renters at the time of the 2021 Census of England and Wales”
Migration Observatory, University of Oxford·Migrants and Housing in the UKIndependent research institute · 4 Dec 2024 ↗
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